October is known as a frightful month, and the reason has
nothing to do with Halloween. It is the month that has contained some of
the stock market's scariest days. The epic 1929 crash. Black Monday in
1987. And, freshest in everyone's minds, the tipping point in the 2008
financial crisis. But the stock market's bad October
reputation is, quite simply, a bad rap. Even though the month has had
five of the six worst one-day drops ever for the Standard & Poor's
500 index, that market benchmark still has averaged a 0.43% gain in
October going all the way back to 1928.
1. The economy is key.
Whether
October lives up to its scary reputation as a crash site or shrugs off
the skeletons in its performance closet will depend on how Wall Street
reacts to economic data, earnings reports and news out of the Federal
Reserve, with the central bank expected to ease quantitative easing this
month and set the stage for eventual interest rate increases.
2. There is equality among industries.
October's
label as a calamitous month masks another bullish aspect about the
month in terms of how individual industry sectors have done. Go back to
1990 and all 10 S&P industry sectors averaged a gain in October.
While technology has been the standout, another less sexy sector is
emerging from tech's shadow.
3. The big three in tech could set the tone.
Technology
investors will be watching closely for earnings news and possible
product launches out of the giants of the tech stock world: Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGLE) and Microsoft (MSFT), though Apple will likely be the headliner.
4. Past performance -- for once -- might actually be worthwhile.
Considering
the potential for rising interest rates, mutual fund investors probably
should try and figure out which funds do well in a rising rate
environment. Luckily, to do that all you have to do is look at
September's winning mutual funds.
5. Profit off scary markets? Probably not.
Trying to make money off volatility? If you fall into the camp that believes this is going to be another of those Octobers
when investors endure a white-knuckle ride, you might be thinking about
investing in an exchange-traded note that tracks volatility in the
market, hoping to make money off of big price swings. Think again.
6. Janet Yellen. TMI. Match the two.
As
the Federal Reserve prepares to exit its aggressive bond-buying program
this month, investors might want to stop and think about whether the
central bank's openness about its plans might have been too much of a
good thing. Trish Regan explains:

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