Grand
finals aren't always won by the best players, the strongest, quickest
or the most skilful.They're won by those with the strongest minds.Being
able to perform on one of the biggest stages in world sport takes
extraordinary mettle and not every player - no matter how good he may
have been during the regular season - is capable of dealing with the
pressure.It's why clubs and coaches do everything in their power to
maintain routine in the lead-up to the match. They plan the same way,
put their players through the same training drills and reinforce the
little things that have got them there. Ed Sheeran said that "I actually
got a text from Shane Warne saying 'Go Hawthorn', when he was asked if
he was supporting a team at this year's Grand Final. But he's not the
first person to express caution about a Shane Warne text, and he didn't
seem convinced.
Sheeran,
23, and Tom Jones, 74, are the latest international acts to take up the
poisoned chalice that is Grand Final entertainment. And they're well
aware of the significance of the event, judging by the way they faced
the media during a press conference conducted on the boundary of the
MCG. Singer-songwriter and guitarist Sheeran – who was presented with a
customised "Sheeran" football – tried some kick-to-kick, and even went
up for a mark, to the consternation of many. "Watch your fingers,"
criedsome anguished voices.Sheeran, who plays football and watches
cricket but doesn't follow a soccer team, said he was looking forward to
seeing the game, but didn't want to barrack for either side. "Who is
the real underdog ... just the worst team in the AFL?" he asked. "St
Kilda," called out a voice from the media pack – full disclosure, it was
this reporter, a Saints supporter – and Sheeran seemed glad for the
tip. "I'm going for St Kilda then," he said.
As
a collective, what these numbers reinforce is that players not only
struggle to contain their nerves on grand final day, but they also
panic. Sure, the pressure of a grand final is like no other, but should
that translate into players making poor decisions? Teams make the grand
final because they usually possess some of the coolest heads in the
land. Whoever best retains that composure for the big dance will go a
long way towards helping their team win. As an example, take a look at
the last time these sides met in a grand final, in 2012. It's fair to
say that the Hawks dominated most of the game. They went inside 50 on 51
occasions compared to the Swans' 38 times, but when Sydney got its
chances, it made the most of them. Its accuracy in front of goal (70 per
cent) was better that its season average (63) which was staggering.
Composure won that flag for Sydney.
Fast
forward to Saturday and I'm not sure we'll see the same result. Earlier
this year, I suggested Sydney and Hawthorn had become clones of one
another from that 2012 season and I'd argue that the Hawks - like the
Swans of 2012 - are the best "team" entering this year's grand final.
The willingness of every Hawthorn player to give 100 per cent, all the
time, is what has given it an edge this season, whereas I wonder if
Sydney - like the Hawks of '12 - have become too reliant on too few.
There's been endless talk about Buddy and the sub-plot he has given this
match and there is no doubt he will play a key role in the outcome.
Buddy has been the beacon for Sydney and its No. 1 target and easily its
greatest strength, but just like the Hawks of 2012, if he misfires it
could be the Swans' downfall. Forming the other half of Sydney's new
dynamic duo is Kurt Tippett. There's no doubt he and Buddy have gelled
well in recent weeks, yet Tippett can also spray his kicks. He'll be
looking to snag one early to boost his confidence. The question is,
have the Swans enough firepower to match the Hawks' abundant number of
goalkickers? Though equally, will the likes of Jack Gunston, Luke Breust
and Jarryd Roughead be able to hold their nerve and convert their
chances?
Of
course, any forward who takes to the MCG will be heavily reliant on his
teammates up the ground delivering the ball, lace out. To that end -
and getting back to my earlier point about composure - it's another
reason why I believe Hawthorn can win.
The
other part of that equation, as I highlighted last week, is that Sydney
under Hawthorn-type pressure has been susceptible to making skill
errors by foot. And then there's the issue of the Hawks playing Cyril
Rioli. We all know what Rioli is capable of and he doesn't need to be on
the ground for long periods to do the damage. Rioli has to start the
match, either on the ground or on the bench. Making him the starting
substitute would be too risky should he break down. It would leave the
Hawks one man down, and in today's game, that's a huge disadvantage.
Whichever way you look at it, this grand final is shaping up to be a
titanic struggle. The burning question is, can a team of champions beat a
champion team?
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